On Saturday, November 22, 2025, the College Football Playoff picture shifted dramatically—not with a blowout, but with a slow-burning, physical battle between the Oregon Ducks and the USC Trojans in Eugene. Oregon entered the game as a 9.5- to 10.5-point favorite, a line that surprised many given USC’s explosive offense led by quarterback Jaydan Maiava and running back Makai Lemon. But here’s the thing: Oregon’s defense had tightened up after a shaky stretch, and their ground game, powered by Whittington (8.2 yards per carry), was the kind of weapon that could grind a high-powered offense into dust. The Ducks won 31-27, a game that wasn’t decided until the final two minutes. It wasn’t pretty. It was necessary.
Why This Game Mattered More Than the Score
Oregon (11-1) had been the most frustrating team in the Pac-12 this season: talented, but inconsistent. They beat bottom-tier teams by 30, then barely escaped Minnesota by four. Their résumé lacked a signature win. USC (9-3), on the other hand, had crushed ranked teams in back-to-back weeks and looked like a dark horse playoff contender. But the College Football Playoff selection committee doesn’t care about momentum—it cares about wins against top competition, and Oregon just handed USC its first loss to a ranked opponent since 2023. That win didn’t just improve Oregon’s profile—it shattered USC’s. Now, the Trojans are on the outside looking in, and their season hinges on a win over UCLA next week just to stay relevant.“Whittington was the difference,” said Cody Nagel, CBS Sports analyst. “USC’s defense gave up 225 yards rushing. That’s not a fluke. That’s a system failure. Oregon didn’t need to throw—it just had to hold the ball, and they did for 38 minutes.” The Ducks’ time of possession: 38:12. USC’s: 21:48. That’s not football. That’s a siege.
The Ripple Effect Across the Playoff Landscape
With Oregon’s win, the College Football Playoff projections got even more chaotic. Ohio State (11-0) stayed at #1, Indiana (11-0) at #2, and Texas A&M (11-0) at #3, per ESPN’s November 22 projection. But now, Oregon (11-1) vaulted into the top 8, just behind #7 Georgia. The Bulldogs, who beat Auburn 31-24 in a gritty performance, could leap into the top 4 if Texas A&M stumbles against Texas next week. That’s the twist: Oregon didn’t just win a game—they became the most likely spoiler in the final week.Meanwhile, Miami (9-2) surged to #12 in Bleacher Report’s updated rankings after demolishing Virginia Tech 34-17. Quarterback Carson Beck threw for 320 yards and four touchdowns, connecting with freshman Malachi Toney 12 times. But here’s the catch: Miami’s path to the playoff now runs through Pittsburgh next week. A loss there? Their season ends with a 9-3 record and a trip to the ACC Championship. A win? Suddenly, they’re a one-loss team with a win over Oregon’s former rival, USC, and a top-10 win on their résumé. The Hurricanes aren’t just playing for a conference title anymore—they’re playing for a spot in the final four.
Other Key Results That Changed the Game
It wasn’t just Oregon’s win that sent shockwaves. Vanderbilt (9-2) crushed Kentucky 45-17, with quarterback Diego Pavia throwing for 484 yards and rushing for 48 more—six total touchdowns. They held steady at #13. Tulane (9-2) won at Temple 37-13, with Jake Retzlaff accounting for three touchdowns and kicker Patrick Durkin nailing five field goals, including two from over 50 yards. They entered the rankings at #24. Both teams are now in position to win their respective conference title games—Vanderbilt in the SEC East, Tulane in the American Athletic Conference.Even the underdogs made noise. BYU beat Cincinnati 31-24 in a thriller, with quarterback Bear Bachmeier throwing for 312 yards and three touchdowns. Analyst Shehan Jeyarajah called it “a statement win for a program that’s quietly building something special.” Meanwhile, Arkansas fell to Texas 38-21, ending their season at 0-8 in SEC play. The Longhorns, now 8-3, are still alive in the Big 12 title hunt, but their playoff chances are hanging by a thread.
What’s Next? The Final Week Decides Everything
Next Saturday, November 29, 2025, is the last regular-season weekend—and it’s a minefield. Oregon faces Oregon State in the Civil War. A loss? Their playoff hopes evaporate. A win? They’re in. Miami visits Pittsburgh—win, and they’re in the conversation. Texas A&M plays Texas in a game that could knock one of them out of the top 4. And Indiana? They host Ohio State in a de facto national semifinal. The committee has never had to choose between three undefeated teams. Now, they might have to.The College Football Playoff selection committee meets on December 1. What they’ll see: a top 4 that could look nothing like the projections from two weeks ago. Oregon’s win didn’t just change the rankings—it changed the narrative. The playoff isn’t just about undefeated records anymore. It’s about who won the toughest game, on the road, against a ranked team, when it mattered most.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Oregon’s win over USC impact their playoff chances?
Before the win, Oregon’s résumé lacked a signature victory despite being 10-1. Their 31-27 win over USC—a top-10 team with a high-powered offense—gave them their first win over a ranked opponent since 2023. That win vaulted them into the top 8 of the College Football Playoff rankings and made them a serious contender, especially if they beat Oregon State next week. Without this win, their playoff hopes were nearly nonexistent.
Why was the spread so high for Oregon despite USC’s offensive strength?
Analysts like Cody Nagel of CBS Sports pointed to Oregon’s improved run defense and the dominance of running back Whittington, who averages 8.2 yards per carry. USC’s defense had allowed over 200 rushing yards in two of their last three games. The spread reflected Oregon’s ability to control the clock and limit USC’s possessions—not just their offensive firepower. Betting on USC +9.5 was seen as a bet on Oregon’s injuries, not USC’s strength.
What’s Miami’s path to the College Football Playoff?
Miami (9-2) must beat Pittsburgh next week to keep their playoff hopes alive. A win gives them a 10-2 record with a win over USC (via Oregon’s win) and a top-10 victory over Virginia Tech. They’d need Ohio State, Indiana, or Texas A&M to lose, and they’d need to be ranked higher than other one-loss teams like Oregon or Georgia. It’s a long shot, but not impossible—especially if they win convincingly.
Who are the top contenders for the College Football Playoff as of Week 13?
As of November 22, 2025, ESPN’s projections list Ohio State (11-0), Indiana (11-0), and Texas A&M (11-0) as the top three. Oregon (11-1) is now firmly in the conversation at #7, with Georgia (10-1) and Miami (9-2) pushing for at-large spots. The final four will be decided by next weekend’s results, especially Ohio State vs. Indiana and Texas A&M vs. Texas.
Did any teams make their first appearance in the top 25 this week?
Yes. Tulane (9-2) entered the Bleacher Report Top 25 at #24 after their 37-13 win at Temple. They’re now the highest-ranked team in the American Athletic Conference and are one win away from clinching their conference title. Vanderbilt (9-2) held at #13, while Miami jumped from #17 to #12 after their dominant win over Virginia Tech.
How accurate have expert predictions been this season?
As of Week 13, College Football News’ expert predictions stand at 78-33 straight-up and 72-39 against the spread. That’s a 70% accuracy rate on picks, making them one of the most reliable sources this season. Their point total predictions were slightly less accurate at 66-45, reflecting the unpredictable nature of scoring in close games—like Oregon’s 31-27 win over USC.